I’ve come to believe that who wins the 2020 elections for the senate majority and the presidency will depend on which party is most successful at tapping into human emotions as opposed to winning rational arguments.
If our elections were about legitimately rational arguments such as ensuring the rule of law, protecting the environment, solid economic policies, smart foreign policy, and expanding constitutional equal protection under the law, then in 2020 there would be no contest. But it’s not about these important issues. It’s about our emotional state as individuals and groups trying to live in an increasingly connected world. For many people, fear has become the driving force behind their political choices while for others a sense of frustration with the current state of affairs is central. Both sides are angry. But which side will be angry enough to actually go to the polls in November next year? I’ve been watching people these past few weeks to see if I can pinpoint the emotions that will make the biggest difference for Republicans and Democrats and everyone in between. And what I’ve seen has convinced me of a way forward for Democrats.
Two days ago, I heard a white male trucker from Pennsylvania whose business is really suffering as a result of Trump’s tariffs say that he is 100% certain that he will vote for Trump again in 2020. He claimed to believe that Trump was “fighting for him” despite the tariffs. I scratched my head as I struggled to understand what rational business person could look at the policies and actions of this president and think that. Then it occurred to me that this trucker, and many farmers who are also suffering great losses, might be more fearful of immigrants, other countries, people of color, gay rights and a woman’s right to choose than their own financial well being.
I realized that if someone is able to convince you that “others” pose a real threat to your survival, then you become willing to suffer in the short-term to get rid of that threat. Trump has been able to use false narratives, wild exaggerations, and skewed statistics (lies) to activate people’s pre-existing fears and prejudices, making those emotions seem based in rational thought when they aren’t. The constant barrage of deception makes their emotions stronger and more difficult to overcome. When listening to Trump supporters, it is evident that they believe that only Trump can protect them against the very threats that they don’t seem to realized that Trump himself has conjured up. The fear is very real. Never mind that it is based on lies and exaggerations.
Sadly, Fox News and other conservative media outlets are complicit in pushing these false narratives while Republican lawmakers are too afraid to correct them. History will record this group of Republican leaders, especially Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, as cowards and hypocrites who failed to do their jobs to protect and depend the Constitution against all enemies, both foreign and domestic. These pernicious lies are doing damage to our democracy and to the welfare of the people in our nation. It is an informed electorate that the framers believed would protect our democracy. But what if the information is false? And sadly, true conservatives know their constituents are being fed lies on a daily basis but they are too afraid to speak up because Trump has captured the unwitting masses in the party by mastering the art of illusion.
On the other hand, the democrats are feeling frustration. It is difficult to expose the daily deluge of the lies, misdeeds, and attacks on human rights and the environment by Trump, especially when half the media and lawmakers are silent about them. Even when exposed, Democrats are frustrated by the inaction among Republican lawmakers who refuse to hold this administration accountable. In 2018, some argue that the House of Representatives was retaken because of issues like health care. I know I voted and campaigned more out of my frustration over this lawless administration that I wanted to hold accountable.
But is frustration as strong an emotion as fear? Can it be sustained? I don’t know. Both fear and frustration can lead to anger and anger can lead to action. But frustration can also lead to hopelessness if the actions taken prove ineffective. After this whole Mueller Investigation, we are left with more false narratives that contradict the actual statements by Mueller himself to characterize his own report. Right now we are in the position of determining whether having elected a Democratic House can and will hold this president accountable even when the Republican Senate will not. Any other president would have already been impeached. But emotions have clouded rational thought and it might be wise to censor, rather than impeach as we move toward 2020.
In my opinion, for 2020 Democrats need to ignite the fear of losing our democracy, losing the rule of law, losing a woman’s reproductive choice, and the threat of losing our planet. At the same time they must stir up another powerful emotion: love. We love our country and we love our children. We want our children to have a planet that is inhabitable. We want a country that is ruled by democracy and the rule of law. We all desire fairness. The narrative of the Democrats can be more powerful if it focuses on our common humanity.
There are plenty of examples. Start with the fact that we are all immigrants. And isn’t it understandable since we all love our children and want a better life for them that any one of us would cross a border if it meant saving the lives of our children? Isn’t having clean water to drink and fresh air to breath a priority? Aren’t we for freedom and opportunity for every American? Don’t we value patriotism, truth, freedom, fairness, and the rule of law? Do we want selfishness, cheating, and lying to become acceptable behaviors? Or do we want to restore mutual respect and decency to our nation? These should be everyday talking points for Democrats if we want to win the senate and the presidency in 2020.
It’s all about emotion. I contend that frustration isn’t enough, but fear of losing so much coupled with love of country and its foundational values might just form a winning combination in 2020.
Excellent analysis of human nature on both sides. I hope that by tapping into rational policy & common goals without demonizing oppositional thinking, comes into play. There is really nothing I can add to your words. You satisfied my craving for good food for thought. Thank you.