I’ll probably be long gone from this earth when most industrialized countries face the very real repercussions of an upside-down population pyramid. As fertility rates fall below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman in most industrialized countries while life expectancy rates continue to rise, the number of homegrown youthful workers needed to support economic stability, productivity, and care for the elderly will shrink to crisis levels if something is not done.
The U.S. went from women bearing an average of 3.148 children in 1950 down to only 1.786 children projected for 2024. While it certainly isn’t the lowest fertility rate in the industrialized world, it is still precariously low. On the other hand, life expectancy rose in the U.S. from 68.14 years in 1950 to 79.25 in the current year. Despite the wealth of the U.S., we are nowhere near the top in life expectancy among industrialized countries. In fact, we are closer to the bottom. I attribute this to poor lifestyle choices coupled with overly expensive and inaccessible healthcare.
I recall learning in school that over-population was an existential threat to the planet. Humans were using up limited natural resources, forcing animal species into extinction, polluting our oceans, and causing the planet to overheat. So, some people celebrate the lower fertility rates, especially among industrialized nations where most of the over-consumption occurs. Others fear the very real demographic changes and cultural shifts that immigration would bring if it’s the only solution to support their economies and care for an aging population. These immigrants will come from poor and illiterate countries where the fertility rates remain well above the 2.1 replacement rate.
At the top of that list are the countries Donald Trump referred to as “shit hole” countries whose people he adamantly wants to prevent from immigrating to the U.S. The entire continent of African leads in fertility rates with an average of 4.1 children per woman. This is followed by the poorer, less industrialized countries in Oceania who far exceed the 2.3 fertility rate for that continent which includes Australia and New Zealand (who are below replacement rates). The same is true for Asia and South America where the poorer countries exceed the average 2.0 fertility rate of the continent. In fact, South Korea and Japan have the lowest fertility rates in the world and have near top life expectancy.
In other words, the immigrants of tomorrow who will supply the labor and support the elderly in the industrialized nations of the world will be black and brown people if they can be enticed or forced to immigrate. Projections indicate that by the year 2050, the population of the African continent will be three times larger than the population of the European continent. Already, African people are migrating to Europe in record numbers, and many are starting to enter the United States through the southern border.
The declining birth rates coupled with increases in life expectancy is a burgeoning crisis current political leaders are starting to grapple with. The rhetoric and proposed policies presented by conservatives, liberals, and humanitarians differ according to their view of humanity with regards to diversity, equity, and inclusion. To say that deep rooted xenophobia and racism aren’t embedded in policy discussions at the highest levels is to deny the shortcomings of human nature.
Republicans want to close the border, severely limit immigration, change constitutional protections, and force women to have babies. Democrats want an orderly immigration system that preserves human and constitutional rights, embraces the demographic and cultural diversity immigrants have always brought, and welcomes the youthful influx of labor needed to maintain a viable economy. Humanitarians seek the welfare of all mankind and want to limit fertility, end brain-drain policies, and eliminate militarized borders which are arbitrary lines created to hoard and control resources.
The future of our nation and its immigration policy is being shaped as we vote in every election. The reality is that the U.S. has been and must continue to be a nation of immigrants if it is to survive. The Republicans know that trying to force births is a losing proposition, especially if they are unwilling to enact policies that support childrearing. It appears that their back up plan is to force people to work longer, limit healthcare, and to roll back constitutional rights so that they can remain in power and maintain their wealth as the proportion of white people significantly decreases relative to the numbers of people of color.
In my next blog post, I will continue my observations on our current immigration dilemma.